Don't Depend Solely on the Probabilities



Carpet Farm                                             Milas/TURKEY

I believe you all heard about Milas, Hereke; famous Turkish carpets. Turkish carpets and rugs are famous in all over the world. If you didn't hear about that please visit
:

http://www.turkey.org/artculture/turkishcarpets.htm
 





Splitting Probabilities of Missing Cards

 

 

 

 

     
     The picture at the left is from a carpet farm! Whenever I pass nearby this farm, I see some carpets sown. The farmer must be dreaming of producing more carpets. But, he can not reap more than he sowed: The probability is zero.

   Probabities are used in sports for tactical decisions..

   In a soccer team there are eleven players. But, always the same few players take to shoot penalty kicks. Because their probabilities to score a goal are higher than the others.

    In basketball, some players are good as three-points shooters. Say, Johnny gets 8 three-point shots out of 10, and, Mehmet gets 4 three-point shots out of 10. This means that Johny has 80% probability while Mehmet has 40% probability to get three-point shot. 

    In bridge, probabilities are mostly used ( by those who don't know how to count in bridge) for the tactical desicions of playing to drop or finessing a missing honor.

     The probabilities mainly depends on the division of missing cards. The Java applet at the left finds the probabilities for the distribution of cards when you are missing 6,5,4,3,2 cards in a suit. Program deals random hands.. In each deal the program searches for the entered total number of missing cards. Program counts up to 100 deals with the given missing cards. Then, percentages of missing cards splits are calculated.. 

     These probability tables are informative: Don't let these tables keep you away from learning how to count in bridge. A good player first tries to count opponents points to locate missing honor. If this fails he counts the cards in each suit in the opponents' hands.. If this also fails then he applies these probability tables..

     Here is an example of counting opponents' points to locate a missing honor:

Contract: 3 NT    8 4 2
A K J 4 
9 8 4 2
 QJ
AK 6
6 5 3 2
A 7  6
7 5  3     

 Q 5 3
 Q 7
   5 3 
10 9 8 6  4  2 

 
J 10 9 7 
10 9 8
K Q J 10
A K

     Auction:

W N E S
Pass Pass Pass 1
Pass 1 Pass 1
Pass 2 Pass 2 NT
Pass 3 NT Pass Pass
Pass

West cashes A K and leads  6 . East wins and switches to 10. South wins. Now, South can count 8 tricks: 1 spades, 2 hearts, 3 clubs and 2 diamonds. It seems as if the contract is depend on the finess of Q. But before applying this finess, South can locate Q easily. Since West couldn't open, he does not have 13 points. Until now he showed 7 points (AK). If West is also holding A, he cannot have Q. Because, his total points makes 13. With 13 points he was supposed to open. So, South must learn this by cashing club honors. If he discovers that  West has A, he must cash all master cards and play to drop Q. Because finess will lose...

 If you click the below link, you will watch how the champions count:

COUNTING IN BRIDGE

If you click above link, you can play a hand which is taken from World Bridge Federation- WBF.




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